カテゴリ: スポンサー広告

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"Let's take a break for coffee"の個人的解釈~2005年のFOMC議事録全文 

Fedは2005年のFOMC議事録(Transcripts)を公表した。その中でも注目されたのは6月29-30日に会合で、当時のアトランタ連銀総裁であるジャック・グイン総裁が住宅バブルに警告を発したときのグリーンスパン議長とのやりとりであった。以下はCalculated Risk "The FOMC Debates the Housing Bubble in 2005"より。

[T]there is the housing situation, which we talked about for a long time yesterday afternoon. As I’ve been reporting for several meetings, some of our markets, especially those in coastal areas of South Florida and the Florida panhandle, are experiencing a level of building activity and price increases that are clearly, in my view, unsustainable. Nearly every major Florida city now has experienced increases in the double-digit range, and some, like Miami, Palm Beach, Sarasota, and West Palm, have been reporting increases in housing prices on a year-over-year basis of between 25 and 30 percent. While our discussion yesterday did not seem to indicate a consensus on a national housing bubble, based on past experience I’m reasonably comfortable characterizing the housing feeding frenzy in some of our markets as being a bubble or a near bubble.


For example, the number of major projects planned or under construction in Miami now totals 114, most of which are high-rise developments. That includes 61,000 condo units―eight times the number that were built in the last decade―and a total of 100,000 new parking spaces. I know we don’t have any process for introducing exhibits into the record, but I'd like to pass Dave Stockton this pictorial of the new projects in Miami, so that he can continue to worry a little bit along with me. [Laughter]


My supervision and regulation staff thinks this is an accident waiting to happen in our area. And while the local market excesses probably do not represent systemic national risk, the shakeouts could have serious regional consequences. My bank supervision staff points out that housing-related credit risks to our bank lenders are not so much from defaults on permanent mortgage financing that we talked about yesterday, but rather from lending for land acquisition, development, and construction. The ugly picture we have seen before―and that they think we may very likely see again before long―goes something like this: the drying up of sales of new units; the painful decision of developers to go ahead and complete the construction of additional units to make them saleable, further depressing the market; and speculators who had hoped to see big capital gains walking away or defaulting on their contracts, giving their properties back to the lender. Perhaps it's because of where I sit, but I am less comforted than some of my colleagues about the housing situation. ...


CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. Let's take a break for coffee.





FedFundRate 20110115.


UST10Y 20100115.



UST Yield Curve 20050629.



UST 20110115.


グリーンスパン議長の肩を持つ訳ではないが、あくまで個人的な解釈として"Let's take a break for coffee"の意味とは、この時点では金融政策でとりうる手段はあまり多くなく、穏便に解決する(ソフトランディング)のは極めて困難だったことを示していたのではないかと思われる。

人気ブログランキングへ ←皆さんの応援よろしくお願いします! 




カテゴリ: 金融危機回顧

タグ: 金融危機回顧  Fed  金融政策  FOMC 
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