カテゴリ: スポンサー広告

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Focus of FOMC~時間軸政策の問題点を示唆 


Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve. Growth in household spending has picked up recently but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures is declining and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts have edged up but remain at a depressed level. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.

In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve has closed all but one of the special liquidity facilities that it created to support markets during the crisis. The only remaining such program, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, is scheduled to close on June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities; it closed on March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against the policy action was Thomas M. Hoenig, who believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted because it could lead to a build-up of future imbalances and increase risks to longer run macroeconomic and financial stability, while limiting the Committee’s flexibility to begin raising rates modestly.

また、時間軸政策である、"extended period"というフレーズに関しても、low rates of resource utilization(低水準の資源活用), subdued inflation trends(インフレ圧力の抑制), and stable inflation expectations(安定したインフレ期待)という理由から再表明している。このあたりの金利政策に関してはノーサプライズであり、想定線の評価である。ステートメントは代わり映えがないが、最後のホーニグ総裁の反対票を入れた理由がキーとなっている。


反対票に関してはカンザスシティ連銀のホーニグ総裁のみとなったが、金融のインバランスが将来的に拡大され、マクロ経済や金融を長期間安定的に運営するリスクが増大してきているとのことから、もはや金利水準を"extended period"という期間維持することは望ましくないとしており、さらに今回、そのような時間軸政策を使っていることが”while limiting the Committee's flexibility to begin raising rates modestly”(FOMCは緩やかに金利を引き上げ始めることへの柔軟性を制限している)ということになると付け加えた。これに関しては、前回の議事録でもそのような指摘が確認されている(前回のFOMC Minutes参照)。

Consequently, such forward guidance would not limit the Committee's ability to commence monetary policy tightening promptly if evidence suggested that economic activity was accelerating markedly or underlying inflation was rising notably;





・労働市場の判断を上方修正 "labor market is beginning to improve"(労働市場は改善し始めた)
・家計支出の判断を上方修正 "Growth in household spending has picked up recently"(家計支出の伸びは直近で勢いを増してきた)
・住宅市場の判断をやや上方修正 "Housing starts have edged up but remain at a depressed level"(住宅着工は低水準だが漸進した)



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カテゴリ: 市場視点

タグ: Fed  FOMC 
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