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11月3日にECB理事会が開催され、政策金利である主要リファイナンスオペ金利を25bp引き下げ1.25%にすることを決めた。また預金ファシリティ金利は0.5%、限界貸出ファシリティ金利を2.0%にすることを決めた。ドラギ総裁は記者会見の冒頭で利下げについて以下のように述べている(全文はECB "Introductory statement to the press conference"より)。

Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to reduce the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. While inflation has remained elevated and is likely to stay above 2% for some months to come, inflation rates are expected to decline further in the course of 2012 to below 2%. At the same time, the underlying pace of monetary expansion continues to be moderate. After today’s decision, inflation should remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon. Owing to their unfavourable effects on financing conditions and confidence, the ongoing tensions in financial markets are likely to dampen the pace of economic growth in the euro area in the second half of this year and beyond. The economic outlook continues to be subject to particularly high uncertainty and intensified downside risks. Some of these risks have been materialising, which makes a significant downward revision to forecasts and projections for average real GDP growth in 2012 very likely. In such an environment, price, cost and wage pressures in the euro area should also moderate; today’s decision takes this into account. Overall, it remains essential for monetary policy to maintain price stability over the medium term, thereby ensuring a firm anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make its contribution towards supporting economic growth and job creation in the euro area.



Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Real GDP growth in the euro area, which slowed in the second quarter of 2011 to 0.2% quarter on quarter, is expected to be very moderate in the second half of this year. There are signs that previously identified downside risks have been materialising, as reflected in unfavourable evidence from survey data. Looking forward, a number of factors seem to be dampening the underlying growth momentum in the euro area, including a moderation in the pace of global demand and unfavourable effects on overall financing conditions and on confidence resulting from ongoing tensions in a number of euro area sovereign debt markets. At the same time, we continue to expect euro area economic activity to benefit from continued positive economic growth in the emerging market economies, as well as from the low short-term interest rates and the various measures taken to support the functioning of the financial sector.


In the Governing Council’s assessment, the downside risks to the economic outlook for the euro area are confirmed in an environment of particularly high uncertainty. Downside risks notably relate to a further intensification of the tensions in some segments of the financial markets in the euro area and at the global level, as well as to the potential for these pressures to further spill over into the euro area real economy. They also relate to the impact of the still high energy prices, protectionist pressures and the possibility of a disorderly correction of global imbalances.



Eurozone PMI 20111104.

ドラギ総裁も記者との質問において、欧州経済が"mild recession looming in the eurozone by the end of this year"(今年の年末にマイルドなりセッションになるかもしれない)と語っており、そのひとつの要因が金融市場の緊張が実体経済へスピルオーバーしていくリスクであり、そうしたリスクを抑えるためにも、金融市場の緊張について利下げにより緩和していくといった手段が取られたものと思われる。特に、ギリシャ情勢においては、先日EUサミットで包括的な救済策を決められたが、パパンドレウ首相は国民投票を実施し現政権の信を問うとしたことから、金融市場もそれに反応し混乱するといった事態が発生した。また金融市場の緊張に際しては従来のSMP(証券市場プログラム)の実施(但し規模拡大は行われていない)や、前回の理事会で決定されたカバードボンド購入プログラム(CBPP2)といった非標準的な手段も拡充しており、利下げと流動性対策、信用緩和で金融市場の緊張を抑えこもうとしている。


With regard to price developments, euro area annual HICP inflation was 3.0% in October according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, unchanged from September. Inflation rates have been at elevated levels since the end of last year, mainly driven by higher energy and other commodity prices. Looking ahead, they are likely to stay above 2% for some months to come, before falling below 2% in the course of 2012. Inflation rates are expected to remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon. This pattern reflects the expectation that, in an environment of weaker euro area and global growth, price, cost and wage pressures in the euro area should also moderate.


The Governing Council continues to view the risks to the medium-term outlook for price developments as broadly balanced, taking also into account today’s decision. On the upside, the main risks relate to the possibility of increases in indirect taxes and administered prices, owing to the need for fiscal consolidation in the coming years. In the current environment, however, inflationary pressure should abate. The main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker than expected growth in the euro area and globally. In fact, if sustained, sluggish economic growth has the potential to reduce medium-term inflationary pressure in the euro area.




Draghi code 20111104.

FTの記者がトリシェ前総裁とドラギ新総裁の違いについてコンスタンシオ副総裁に質問したが、その際、副総裁は時期尚早である(It is too soon to tell)としていた。しかし、トリシェ前総裁はインフレ重視型というイメージが強いが、ドラギ総裁は会見内容や政策決定についての説明を聞く限りにおいて、やや景気重視型のスタンスをとっているようにも思われる。今後、12月に経済見通しが出されるが、成長率やインフレについて、9月の見通しからさらに大幅に下方修正するようなことがあれば、追加利下げの余地も考慮したいところである。


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タグ: 金融政策  ユーロ  ECB  欧州金融不安 
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